Electoral Calculus predicts election outcomes in Somerset

Statistics from Electoral Calculus based on recent polling suggest Labour could be on course to win 317 seats in a general election with 40 per cent of the vote, while the Conservatives are predicted to win 238 seats from 32 per cent of the vote.

Labour’s lead in the polls increased to eight points at the end of January – up from six at the end of December – which Electoral Calculus’ commentary said “was due to the ongoing ‘Partygate’ scandal where Number Ten staff are accused of breaching Covid lockdown rules and guidance”.

It continued: “If these figures were repeated at a general election, they would be very likely to lose it and Keir Starmer would be on course to lead a minority Labour government. 

“The key political question is whether 'Partygate' is a transient squall and Conservative fortunes can recover, or whether it marks a sea-change like Black Wednesday in 1992 which irredeemably tarnished John Major's government in the eyes of the voters.”

According to the prediction, Boris Johnson could lose his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat to Labour, while Mr Starmer is likely to re-gain ‘Red Wall’ seats in northern England.

Although a snap election is unlikely to be called any time soon, the figures are useful to show how public opinion has changed since the last general election was held December 2019.

The Electoral Calculus prediction is based on opinion polls from January 12 to January 28 (which sampled 17,792 people) which have been applied to constituency results from 2019.

What does Electoral Calculus predict could happen in a general election in Somerset?

Although the predictions suggest the Conservatives would lose seats across the country if a snap election took place, the Tory Party's hold on Somerset’s constituencies would be unlikely to end.

Rebecca Pow first won the Taunton Deane constituency – which was held by the Liberal Democrats for the first five after its creation – in 2015, and she won subsequent elections in 2017 and 2019.

In 2019, Mrs Pow won 54 per cent of the vote in Taunton Deane with 34,164 votes.

Based on recent polling, it has been predicted that her vote share would drop to around 40 per cent, but this would be enough for her to beat the Liberal Democrats (29 per cent) and Labour (22 per cent).

Electoral Calculus gives her a 73 per cent chance of retaining her seat in a future election. 

Joanna Lumley with Rebecca Pow MP in Old Palace Yard, London. Picture: Ian West, PA Wire

Mrs Pow told the County Gazette: “Opinion polls are a snapshot in time and there is not general election until 2024.

“Polls vary frequently so I am concentrating on representing my constituents in Westminster and continuing to deliver for Taunton Deane and for the sustainable future we all want and need through my role as environment minister.”

The Bridgwater and West Somerset constituency was also created in 2010, and it has been held by Ian Liddell-Grainger ever since.

According to Electoral Calculus, Mr Liddell-Grainger would retain his seat in a snap election with an 87 per cent chance of winning, but his vote share is expected to fall from 62 per cent to 47 per cent.

In 2015, Marcus Fysh won the Yeovil constituency from the Liberal Democrats, and he won the following elections with larger vote shares each time.

Like Mrs Pow and Mr Liddell-Grainger, it is expected he would hold his seat in the event of a snap election with a smaller percentage of votes than he gained in 2019 (43 per cent compared to 58 per cent).

In the last general election, Mr Fysh won in every ward of the Yeovil constituency, which Electoral Calculus expects would be replicated in this hypothetical snap election.

The Somerton and Frome seat was also won by the Tories from the Liberal Democrats in the last decade, when David Warburton was elected in 2015.

In the event of an election, it is predicted Mr Warburton would receive 41 per cent of the vote – around 16 per cent more votes than Labour are estimated to win to come second, but 14 per cent fewer than he won in 2019.

Armed forces minister and Wells MP James Heappey. Picture: David Mirzoeff, PA Wire

Similarly, armed forces minister James Heappey is predicted to retain the Wells seat he has held since 2015, though his predicted votes are expected to be around 40 per cent, showing a decrease of 14 per cent from his 2019 result.

North East Somerset MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who was recently appointed minster for Brexit opportunities and government efficiency, is predicted to receive around 38 per cent of the vote share, giving him a majority of four per cent.

In 2019, Mr Rees-Mogg’s majority was 26 per cent.

John Penrose, who represents Weston-super-Mare and was reappointed as Boris Johnson’s anti-corruption champion in July 2019, would be expected to hold his seat with 42 per cent of the vote.

This is a decrease from the 58 per cent of the vote share he received in December 2019.

In the event of a snap election, Electoral Calculus predicts that Dr Liam Fox would hold his North Somerset seat with 39 per cent of the vote.

As has been predicted for the county’s other MPs, he would be expected to win the seat with a smaller majority of votes (40 per cent compared to 53 per cent in 2019).

The County Gazette contacted all the MPs included in this article but only Mrs Pow provided a comment.